Blackpool South sees third biggest Tory to Labour by-election swing since war

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails

Sign up to our free breaking news emails

Please enter a valid email address

Please enter a valid email address

SIGN UP

I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy

Labour needed a swing in the share of the vote of just 5.7 percentage points to win Blackpool South – but in the event they managed a huge 26.3 points.

It is the third largest swing from the Conservatives to Labour at a by-election since the Second World War.

The second largest swing took place earlier this year, at the Wellingborough by-election in February, which saw Labour take the seat from the Tories on a swing of 28.5 points.

The largest ever by-election swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the war was 29.1 percentage points, at the Dudley West by-election in December 1994.

Labour has now clocked up six by-election swings greater than 20 percentage points in the last 12 months.

Along with Blackpool South and Wellingborough, these are a 23.9-point swing at Tamworth and a 20.5-point swing at Mid-Bedfordshire, both in October 2023 and both from the Conservatives; 20.4 points at Rutherglen & Hamilton West in October 2023 from the SNP; and 23.7 points at Selby & Ainsty in July 2023 from the Tories.

The last time Labour recorded swings of this kind was when Tony Blair led the party in opposition from 1994 to 1997 – although the party only managed two such feats in this period: the 29.1-point swing at Dudley West in December 1994 and a 22.1-point swing at Staffordshire South East in April 1996.

The largest ever by-election swing against a government since the Second World War in a contest where a seat changed hands took place in July 1993, when the Liberal Democrats took Christchurch from the Conservatives on a swing of 35.4 percentage points.